The Odds of Being Right and other Mysteries

Some years ago, I worked as a registered representative for E.F. Hutton, in the Madison office. Yes, it was always reassuring to work for a company that had as its slogan, " When E.F. Hutton speaks, people listen."

In this office were competitive and hard working brokers. In fact, overworking brokers. It was hard not thinking of the business 24 hours a day. Mornings began about 7:30am with the telephone report from New York and ended after dinners of pizza, pizza and pizza, and cold calling new prospective clients about investment ideas.

There was one exception to all the brokers. His name was Bruce. Bruce came in when he pleased. He drove a BMW. He had a beautiful wife. He met his clients like a physician would a patient. Sometimes he would not come in to work at all! And when he did come back he would be all tan and tell us of a wonderful trip. He seemed very relaxed all the time. He seemed able to laugh at things that all of us did not think were too funny. All of the other brokers were not pleased with Bruce. It seemed totally unfair.

At this time, I had two young daughters, 5yr. and 3yr, and was working about 60 hrs a week and it occurred to me that Bruce knew something that I did not. So, one day I went in and simply asked him, " Bruce, how do you do it. I just don't understand?"

He smiled and said, " Well, you must understand that everyone here is very bright and has good ideas. But even so, if you honestly plot your ideas and hold the record for a month, you will discover that you will be right only 50% of the time. Try it and you will see. Being bright is not enough. My secret is that I plan on being wrong and use options to prepare for it. He then proceeded to show me on a $1,000,000 investment for his clients how he had protected the investment from the possiblity that he could be wrong. Then he smiled and laughed.

I have never forgot the lesson that Bruce taught me, nor the BMW, the model wife and the style of work that Bruce enjoyed. The crash of 1987 came. Bruce did just fine. His clients were protected. He went on to be a very successful mutual fund manager.

I tell this story for those on the comment line. The good news is that we keep the comments online for review for a year. The bad news is that we keep the comments online for a year.

E.F. Hutton thought it knew so much. In a heartbeat when the market plunged 500 points it was over. Instantly. On the phone from New York, senior staff were urging brokers not to jump from windows, but to get some perspective on what they valued in life. I was in Madison. On the first floor. No place to jump.

As you comment on the blog calculate the possiblity that you might be right? Might be wrong? What are the odds? Is it better than Babe Ruth? Is it better than 50%. Plan accordingly.