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Sunday, March 12, 2006

"Volatility"------on the song; on the price parents and kids pay

Some years ago, I had the pleasure of working in a brokerage firm, and while I was selling conservative bonds and stocks, the gentleman in the office next to me, Elvin R, was a very heavy options player. Mostly the S&P 500 options. In that option, on very volatile days, one could lose thousands in just a few minutes.

Whenever there would be an extreme period of volatility, Elvin would go to the entrance of his office, and intone " VoLLLa TiLLLLa TTTTT". Just that short one word song would put terror in the hearts of rookie traders, including myself.

If you click on the link, and then scroll down to the natural gas spot pricing, you will see the chart of natural gas spot prices in the past year. You need to scroll down to the natural gas graph. It resembles a very high tent. In summary, the natural gas prices have spiked from $6 a 1000 btu to $16 a 1000 btu and then back to $6. Why does this matter to you?

Each fall, school districts have to plan ahead. They lock in an option but that price only locks them to January, when they have to lock again. For safety sake because it might go higher and they have only so much money.

The problem is that with the lack of regulation currently, with the locking process, the tent indicates to this Observer that schools, kids and taxpayers may be getting ripped off. The governors of Minnesota and Wisconsin have called for an investigation. So does the Observer.

The Observer thinks that school districts should be able to have enough regulation in matters of natural gas pricing so they do not have to pay excessive amounts for a product and be held hostage to speculation. This may bring back memories of Enron. Yes, and other energy trading schemes.

This especially rubs The Observer when school districts have to make cuts that in fact might not have been necessary if a fair energy price had been available.

I will leave it up to the experts to decide whether the markets were the "most efficient". My gut feeling is that they were NOT.

What do you think? You make the call.

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