"The Count"; On What, Where and HOW to count

Some of you have emailed me wondering where I was last night as the "Count" in my purple cape, the black vest, rumpled white shirt and the vampire mask. I have to admit that my thick glasses did not go with the vampire mask, and further, purple capes are really hard to find these days. So, I just handed out some candy to all the kids who came.

But, since I have been questioned by some as to my theory of the "Count", I should expand on "HOW" to count, now that it appears that all the building expansion for the next ten years has been penciled in for Evansville.

There is good news and bad news. First the good news. All across this country, if you search on enrollment and housing permits, you will see a pattern of large urban school districts facing dispair as birth rates plummet, schools close, neighborhoods decline, programs in the arts cut etc. Bill Gates of Microsoft and reps from the DeJong company, specialists in enrollment projection are telling school districts that the perfect size of a school is 400 with 100 in each grade, and that in America, 99% of schools are ineffective.

So, the good news is----- we have the size right.

On the matter of "HOW" to count. If you click on the post,(you may have to search yahoo on "Akron schools +enrollment" it is #5 an Adobe document) you will see the planning document of the Akron School District. Using GIS software, and the enrollment data of the past plus housing starts and demographic data, they have done a projection of their needs. Evansville already has most of this demographic data. The bottom line is that not all housing starts create a burden for the schools. Upscale condo units or senior housing may not be the type of building that local builders want to build, but they are what would fit in the TIF district nicely and contribute to the downtown.

What is the bad news? At the recent Union-Evansville joint planning session, a Union attendee said " You can plan all you want, but if Albany schools is merged with Evansville, or a large development occurs toward Janesville at the edge of the Evansville School district or there is 2000 acres taken to R1 in Union, or all three, all bets are off. "( That is a rough quote. ) He is right of course.

Still, it is important to do the numbers. The GIS software is available for this purpose. It would hopefully establish a "HOW" of counting that would contribute to the discussion rather than to the rant. As Karen has pointed out in an earlier comment, without a precise way of talking about the issue of growth, it becomes a maze of confusion.