Friday, January 14, 2011
History: Audio: 2007: Supr. Carvin: 4K as Summer School Option
History: 2007: Supr.Carvin asks Board for approval for planning of 4K as Summer School Offering
MP3 File
MP3 File
"A lesson in Weather accounting...and more
Nostalgia: 2006: Comparison and reflection of how weather forecasting relates to other areas of life like school accounting, municipal accounting or even running times.
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MP3 File
2007:Classic Observer: School Board--2-2007
School Board Forum: February 2007: "On Focus--What is important and What is NOT. 4K and Half Day Kindergarten are settled issues. Governance. Open Media. Developing Public Trust
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Nostalgia: 2007: Classic Observer: School Board Forum
Observer: The Aqua Velva Man, Plans on voting not abstaining due to conflict of interest; On improving media relations; On why improving public trust is essential to school administration success.
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Wendell Potter to speak in Madison on Jan 17---Author of "Deadly Spin"
Wendell is a senior fellow on health care with the Center for Media and Democracy in Madison, and has written the book "Deadly Spin" regarding the assertion that corporate PR is killing health care and deceiving Americans.
He will speak at the Goodman Community Center, 139 Wabesa St. at 7PM
Click on the post for his blog.
He will speak at the Goodman Community Center, 139 Wabesa St. at 7PM
Click on the post for his blog.
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Erpenbach; Joining Lawsuit to block health care reform a waste of taxpayer money: CapTimes
Click on the post for the latest.
Wis. Gov. proposes larger setbacks for wind turbines: Gazette
Click on the post. The setback would show greater respect for property, and not even to mention human health.
Video:: Catch the Culture: Terry Whipple
Video: 1 of 11: Intro. Catch the Culture: Speech of Terry Whipple to Evansville Economic Development meeting. full podcast coming.
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Video: 3: 4K: Any difference at 3rd grade?
Video: Mrs. Hurley askes the question whether the skills acquired all even out at 3rd grade whether student had 4k or not. No answer to question, except that the stress of the child that is behind affects their experience at school and feelings about it.
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Mailbag: "Bear Trader" Reviews the Unemployment numbers:
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota, who will vote on the interest- rate setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, has said (I can't remember where I read this) that he thinks that "structural" unemployment is about 6% to 8% at this time and will be for the unforeseeable future. When we add in frictional unemployment of 3% we get the unemployment rates we see now. If he is correct then the unemployment we have now will continue for a period of years or decades, who knows? Could be better, could be worse.
Kocherlakota is talking about U-3 unemployment here, that is, presently 9.4% (Apparently 500,000 people dropped out of the job market last month.!!??) I prefer the same technique for measuring unemployment as was used during the Great Depression, though, guess what, unemployment using that metric is worse now than then. Heh.
Discussion of structural unemployment from Wikipedia, which is OK:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_unemployment
Structural unemployment is a form of unemployment resulting from a mismatch between demand in the labor market and the skills and locations of the workers seeking employment. Even though the number of vacancies may be equal to, or greater than, the number of the unemployed, the unemployed workers may lack the skills needed for the jobs; or they may not live in the part of the country or world where the jobs are available.
Structural unemployment is a result of the dynamics of the labor market and the fact that these can never be as flexible as, e.g., financial markets. Workers are "left behind" due to costs of training and moving (e.g., the cost of selling one's house in a depressed local economy), plus inefficiencies in the labor markets, such as discrimination or monopoly power.
Structural unemployment is hard to separate empirically from frictional unemployment, except to say that it lasts longer. As with frictional unemployment, simple demand-side stimulus will not work to easily abolish this type of unemployment.
Structural unemployment may also be encouraged to rise by persistent cyclical unemployment: if an economy suffers from long-lasting low aggregate demand, it means that many of the unemployed become disheartened, while their skills (including job-searching skills) become "rusty" and obsolete. Problems with debt may lead to homelessness and a fall into the vicious circle of poverty. This means that they may not fit the job vacancies that are created when the economy recovers.
****
The fellow doesn't mention the fellow with thirty or forty years of job experience whose industry just ain't comin' back. The new jobs don't just require retraining, they require a whole different sort of person, smart, willing, capable - and young. Older folks want their experience to count for something. When it doesn't then they join the line to apply for a Wal-Mart greeter job.
Kocherlakota is talking about U-3 unemployment here, that is, presently 9.4% (Apparently 500,000 people dropped out of the job market last month.!!??) I prefer the same technique for measuring unemployment as was used during the Great Depression, though, guess what, unemployment using that metric is worse now than then. Heh.
Discussion of structural unemployment from Wikipedia, which is OK:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Structural_unemployment
Structural unemployment is a form of unemployment resulting from a mismatch between demand in the labor market and the skills and locations of the workers seeking employment. Even though the number of vacancies may be equal to, or greater than, the number of the unemployed, the unemployed workers may lack the skills needed for the jobs; or they may not live in the part of the country or world where the jobs are available.
Structural unemployment is a result of the dynamics of the labor market and the fact that these can never be as flexible as, e.g., financial markets. Workers are "left behind" due to costs of training and moving (e.g., the cost of selling one's house in a depressed local economy), plus inefficiencies in the labor markets, such as discrimination or monopoly power.
Structural unemployment is hard to separate empirically from frictional unemployment, except to say that it lasts longer. As with frictional unemployment, simple demand-side stimulus will not work to easily abolish this type of unemployment.
Structural unemployment may also be encouraged to rise by persistent cyclical unemployment: if an economy suffers from long-lasting low aggregate demand, it means that many of the unemployed become disheartened, while their skills (including job-searching skills) become "rusty" and obsolete. Problems with debt may lead to homelessness and a fall into the vicious circle of poverty. This means that they may not fit the job vacancies that are created when the economy recovers.
****
The fellow doesn't mention the fellow with thirty or forty years of job experience whose industry just ain't comin' back. The new jobs don't just require retraining, they require a whole different sort of person, smart, willing, capable - and young. Older folks want their experience to count for something. When it doesn't then they join the line to apply for a Wal-Mart greeter job.
Wisconsin one of worst states to retire in: In Fiscal Peril: Yahoo Finance
Click on the post for the latest.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Video: 1 of 5: Overview: Mrs Hurley Intro:
Video: 1 of 5: 1/10/2011: Mrs. Hurley opens the discussion with Early Childhood Teachers at Evansville Levi Leonard School: What are the advantages of 4K:
Download File
Download File
Nostalgia; Jan 2007: Mr. Pierick speaks on 4K
Nostalgia: Jan 2007: Mr. Pierick Speaks on 4K------
(Ed. note; Mr. Larson of the Evansville School Board asked that 4K be placed as a board goal for the upcoming school year, or at least a review of it. I have reprinted Mr. Michael Pierick's comments about 4k at the time of the recent defeat of this proposal. It was the second consideration of 4K in one year. Mr. Larson is coming up for reelection in April of 2008.)
"I have a subjective bias about preschool, and I personally believe that there are benefits to 4-year-old kindergarten. Both of my sons attended preschool, and my opinion is based upon the positive learning experience that they had.
However, I have very strong reservations about going forward with this program, and even about going ahead with a pilot program. If I were to vote today, I would vote not to continue. In fact, I question why we are investing so many District resources and so much planning time on something that appears less than fully compelling.
My reservations are varied.
I don’t see any widely based community support for 4-year-old kindergarten, and there were more comments at the public hearing opposed to this program than in favor.
This was initially presented as a program that would benefit and be supported by the existing providers of 4-year-old preschool in the District, but most of those providers who came to the public hearing spoke against it.
The State legislative task force on this topic was presented a few days ago. The task force admitted that it did not vote on the recommendations. Regardless of the recommendations, there is a statement in the report that is unlikely to be refuted soon by anyone: “in our current limited resource setting, increased funding for 4 year old kindergarten programs is not likely, and would only be found at the expense of another education program.â€
We have a facilities consulting firm, Plunkett Raysich Architects, which has given us some preliminary analysis of our facilities. According to Plunkett Raysich, we already have a need for three additional rooms to serve our elementary school population, and will need another by 2011 – in just four years. We are currently at the level of classrooms that we need to serve our intermediate school population, but will need three more rooms in four years. We now have the number of core curriculum rooms needed to serve our middle school population – not the best facility, only the right number of core curriculum rooms -- but we will need five additional classrooms in four years. And we will need one more classroom in the high school designed just five years ago. Altogether, this means we need to add about 13 classrooms in four years. The preliminary report also talks about numerous facility deficiencies in the three older buildings – some of them major deficiencies -- and even a few facility deficiencies in the new high school. (Edited)
I believe that the Evansville community will support this District when we go to them and demonstrate our need for additional classrooms in order to teach additional children who have moved to the district or been born in the district. But I very much doubt that the community will support us if we increase the number of students in our buildings by adding 4 year olds over the next few years, and then turn around and say it’s too crowded.
I think we need to stop planning for any 4 year old program that will place additional children in our school buildings. I think this Board needs to give a strong message about this now, so that valuable administrator and staff time can be spent on other important curriculum and planning endeavors."
(Ed. note; Mr. Larson of the Evansville School Board asked that 4K be placed as a board goal for the upcoming school year, or at least a review of it. I have reprinted Mr. Michael Pierick's comments about 4k at the time of the recent defeat of this proposal. It was the second consideration of 4K in one year. Mr. Larson is coming up for reelection in April of 2008.)
"I have a subjective bias about preschool, and I personally believe that there are benefits to 4-year-old kindergarten. Both of my sons attended preschool, and my opinion is based upon the positive learning experience that they had.
However, I have very strong reservations about going forward with this program, and even about going ahead with a pilot program. If I were to vote today, I would vote not to continue. In fact, I question why we are investing so many District resources and so much planning time on something that appears less than fully compelling.
My reservations are varied.
I don’t see any widely based community support for 4-year-old kindergarten, and there were more comments at the public hearing opposed to this program than in favor.
This was initially presented as a program that would benefit and be supported by the existing providers of 4-year-old preschool in the District, but most of those providers who came to the public hearing spoke against it.
The State legislative task force on this topic was presented a few days ago. The task force admitted that it did not vote on the recommendations. Regardless of the recommendations, there is a statement in the report that is unlikely to be refuted soon by anyone: “in our current limited resource setting, increased funding for 4 year old kindergarten programs is not likely, and would only be found at the expense of another education program.â€
We have a facilities consulting firm, Plunkett Raysich Architects, which has given us some preliminary analysis of our facilities. According to Plunkett Raysich, we already have a need for three additional rooms to serve our elementary school population, and will need another by 2011 – in just four years. We are currently at the level of classrooms that we need to serve our intermediate school population, but will need three more rooms in four years. We now have the number of core curriculum rooms needed to serve our middle school population – not the best facility, only the right number of core curriculum rooms -- but we will need five additional classrooms in four years. And we will need one more classroom in the high school designed just five years ago. Altogether, this means we need to add about 13 classrooms in four years. The preliminary report also talks about numerous facility deficiencies in the three older buildings – some of them major deficiencies -- and even a few facility deficiencies in the new high school. (Edited)
I believe that the Evansville community will support this District when we go to them and demonstrate our need for additional classrooms in order to teach additional children who have moved to the district or been born in the district. But I very much doubt that the community will support us if we increase the number of students in our buildings by adding 4 year olds over the next few years, and then turn around and say it’s too crowded.
I think we need to stop planning for any 4 year old program that will place additional children in our school buildings. I think this Board needs to give a strong message about this now, so that valuable administrator and staff time can be spent on other important curriculum and planning endeavors."
Monday, January 10, 2011
Oscar Meyer workers win worktime lawsuit: Wisconsin State Journal
Click on the post for the latest. Now other companies can change their ways.
Evansville School Board: 4K Meeting 1/10/2011
Audio; Subgroup meeting at 3:15PM, Monday 1/10/2011; Evansville Early Childhood Teachers Speak of the reasons for a 4K program.
MP3 File
MP3 File
History: 2006: Melissa Hammann Speaks on 4K---
2006: History: Hammann declares all the assumptions of 4k Proposal have been shown to be debunked
Download File
Download File
Sunday, January 09, 2011
4K Meeting Monday, January 10th: 3:15PM Levi Leonard: School Scoop
Click on the post for the information about this meeting.
Mailbag: "Bear Trader" writes on QE2, QE3, QE4 and much more:
I sent you my thoughts on China buying Spanish Sovereign bonds.
Those buying bond funds are buying into leverage, as you point out. There are few bond funds operating without it. I could be interested in a bond fund that uses only futures for leverage if they were used prudently. Ah, "prudently", that is the rub.
Comparing the Carter era with the present, I think the Bond Vigilantes nowadays are, on the one hand, benefiting greatly from QE2, and are making money for nothing hand over fist with it, and don't want to be cut off; on the other, nobody in USG bonds wants to cross the FED because the FED just swamps the market with QE2. There is no telling how many Treasuries the FED has bought, but it is in the $Trillions - some think that the FED has bought well over half of the Treasuries coming to market on occasion. I am sure they are targeting 30 years at 4.5% and 10 years at about 3.4% with an absolute upper limit of 4.0%.
The Primary Dealers buy the Federal paper and then immediately sell it to the FED. For some profit, of course.
This is why those in the know sometimes talk about QE3, QE4, QE5, etc., because how do you stop? Unless Happy Days Are Here Again?
This is what is known as "monetizing the debt". Historically this has always lead to massive inflation, not the Carter era variety, but the money killing kind. Bernanke is sure he can handle it, of course. Hubris. A very, very destructive guy.
Those buying bond funds are buying into leverage, as you point out. There are few bond funds operating without it. I could be interested in a bond fund that uses only futures for leverage if they were used prudently. Ah, "prudently", that is the rub.
Comparing the Carter era with the present, I think the Bond Vigilantes nowadays are, on the one hand, benefiting greatly from QE2, and are making money for nothing hand over fist with it, and don't want to be cut off; on the other, nobody in USG bonds wants to cross the FED because the FED just swamps the market with QE2. There is no telling how many Treasuries the FED has bought, but it is in the $Trillions - some think that the FED has bought well over half of the Treasuries coming to market on occasion. I am sure they are targeting 30 years at 4.5% and 10 years at about 3.4% with an absolute upper limit of 4.0%.
The Primary Dealers buy the Federal paper and then immediately sell it to the FED. For some profit, of course.
This is why those in the know sometimes talk about QE3, QE4, QE5, etc., because how do you stop? Unless Happy Days Are Here Again?
This is what is known as "monetizing the debt". Historically this has always lead to massive inflation, not the Carter era variety, but the money killing kind. Bernanke is sure he can handle it, of course. Hubris. A very, very destructive guy.
Mailbag: Bear Trader: Why the Chinese want to buy Spanish Debt Explained
Part of the deal with Spain is that the Spanish oil exploration - drilling - production company Repsol gets chunked up some and China gets to buy majority stakes in various pieces. That is, the Spanish Government and Repsol are negotiating with China and Sinopec, the Chinese entity functionally similar to Repsol, to sell China the pieces of Repsol China is interested in. So, China buys Spanish Government bonds and then is allowed to buy the latest deep water drilling technology as well as a lot of other fully modern oil technology from Repsol.
Repsol and Sinopec have already set up a joint venture in Brazil, including the very deep very large under open ocean "pre-salt" deposits off the north shore. Sinopec gets all the technology it wants to copy, naturally.
The East Asian continental shelf appears to be loaded with oil. China is setting up to monopolize any off shore oil production from the Sakhalin Islands south to the Bay of Thailand. This is why they are developing/making new aircraft carriers, stealth fighter - bombers, anti - ship (anti US Navy aircraft carrier, actually) highly sophisticated terminally guided ballistic missiles, etc. China at this time launches more military payloads into earth orbit than does the USA. Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Viet Nam are very alarmed. Looking at what China is doing militarily it looks like China plans to control the Pacific west of Guam.
And that is why China buys Spanish bonds. Besides showing the European Central Bank and the Bundesbank who is the top dog, that is.
Repsol and Sinopec have already set up a joint venture in Brazil, including the very deep very large under open ocean "pre-salt" deposits off the north shore. Sinopec gets all the technology it wants to copy, naturally.
The East Asian continental shelf appears to be loaded with oil. China is setting up to monopolize any off shore oil production from the Sakhalin Islands south to the Bay of Thailand. This is why they are developing/making new aircraft carriers, stealth fighter - bombers, anti - ship (anti US Navy aircraft carrier, actually) highly sophisticated terminally guided ballistic missiles, etc. China at this time launches more military payloads into earth orbit than does the USA. Japan, Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Viet Nam are very alarmed. Looking at what China is doing militarily it looks like China plans to control the Pacific west of Guam.
And that is why China buys Spanish bonds. Besides showing the European Central Bank and the Bundesbank who is the top dog, that is.
Saturday, January 08, 2011
Minn; Congressional Offices Prepare for Cuts---will Wisconsin follow?: Star Tribune
Click on the post for the latest.
Friday, January 07, 2011
Memories of the TRUE Constitution and Jefferson's Monticello celebrated in Normal, Mn.: FICTION
Click on the post for the latest.
Thursday, January 06, 2011
SchoolScoop: School Board Meeting Coming Monday, Jan 10th: 4K on the Agenda
Click on the post for the latest.
Yahoo: Finance; Congress unlikely to extend more aid to States:
As the stimulus money ends, the tough budget decisions loom. Click on the post for the story in Yahoo Finance.
Mailbag: "Bear Trader" comments on Turning Natural Gas into Fuel Liquids
My belief is that the NYT overestimates the cost and difficulty of producing fuel liquids from natural gas.
SASOL uses what is known as Fischer - Tropsch synthesis to make fuel liquids from coal in South Africa. Fischer - Tropsch synthesis is expensive. The Third Reich had little petroleum available, essentially only from Romania, and produced synthesized coal derived fuel liquids to the max. The official cost of synthetics was about twice the cost of fuel liquids made from Romanian oil, and Germany was paying through the nose for for that stuff. I suspect Fischer -Tropsch from coal in the USA would deliver gasoline at over $10 per gallon.
The American Army Air Force finally bit the bullet and systematically bombed the hell out of the Reich's synthetic fuel plants. The Germans defended them with all their might. It cost the lives of many of our youngsters and maybe a thousand or two of our bombers. Albert Speer (Third Reich Minister of Production) said, after the war, that the English bombing was like terrible body blows but that the American 90%+ destruction of synthetic fuel plants was like having their throats cut.
Anyway. The chemistry of making fuel liquids from a combination of natural gas and coal is way different than what is needed to produce fuel liquids from coal alone. The natural gas can supply the hydrogen needed for what is known as the "solvent refined coal" process, cutting energy waste and initial investment substantially. Not "off the shelf" technology, though, needs some R&D.
Maybe, not including the cost of designing and building the plants, putting in pipelines and railroads (to handle coal) and going for economies of scale - say, replacing one half of oil imports - you could make gasoline that would sell for $4 - $5 a gallon in today's money. The reason I use this relatively high price range is that using this much natural gas on a continuous basis would mean natural gas prices in the order of $10 - $15 per million Btu instead of under $4.
SASOL uses what is known as Fischer - Tropsch synthesis to make fuel liquids from coal in South Africa. Fischer - Tropsch synthesis is expensive. The Third Reich had little petroleum available, essentially only from Romania, and produced synthesized coal derived fuel liquids to the max. The official cost of synthetics was about twice the cost of fuel liquids made from Romanian oil, and Germany was paying through the nose for for that stuff. I suspect Fischer -Tropsch from coal in the USA would deliver gasoline at over $10 per gallon.
The American Army Air Force finally bit the bullet and systematically bombed the hell out of the Reich's synthetic fuel plants. The Germans defended them with all their might. It cost the lives of many of our youngsters and maybe a thousand or two of our bombers. Albert Speer (Third Reich Minister of Production) said, after the war, that the English bombing was like terrible body blows but that the American 90%+ destruction of synthetic fuel plants was like having their throats cut.
Anyway. The chemistry of making fuel liquids from a combination of natural gas and coal is way different than what is needed to produce fuel liquids from coal alone. The natural gas can supply the hydrogen needed for what is known as the "solvent refined coal" process, cutting energy waste and initial investment substantially. Not "off the shelf" technology, though, needs some R&D.
Maybe, not including the cost of designing and building the plants, putting in pipelines and railroads (to handle coal) and going for economies of scale - say, replacing one half of oil imports - you could make gasoline that would sell for $4 - $5 a gallon in today's money. The reason I use this relatively high price range is that using this much natural gas on a continuous basis would mean natural gas prices in the order of $10 - $15 per million Btu instead of under $4.
Wednesday, January 05, 2011
Tuesday, January 04, 2011
Monday, January 03, 2011
Gov. Dayton says balancing the Minn Budget without any tax increase is unrealistic: StarTrib
Click on the post for the latest. The deficit in Minnesota is about 6 billion.
Moral of the Rose Bowl: Leave Wis; Head to the Beach; Text Home if necessary
Congrats to the Badgers on a great season.
Evansville Municipal Court Reports for October, November, December now Available
Click on the post for the reports.
Friday, December 31, 2010
FDIC takes action against Wis Banks: Involving loans in flood hazard areas: CapTimes
Click on the post for the story in the CapTimes
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Fair Indigo to Close Hilldale Store: WSJ
Click on the post for the story in the Wisconsin State Journal.
Russ Feingold Ends Senate Service: WSJ
Click on the post for the story. Thanks Russ. We will miss you.
Boomers Face Retirement Crisis: Gazette
Click on the post for the story. The boomers are responding...They are planning on working till they die.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Minn Budget solution will not just be draconian cuts but progressive revenue change: Daily Planet
Click on the post for the latest.
Levels of Compensation for CEO's need review; WE Energies as the case study----Is 11 million too much?
Click on the post for article in the Milwaukee Journal.
UTube: High School Artist Corner: The Music Videos of Nick Christian
Click on the post for a local artist from Verona. All lyrics and video created by Nick.
Yahoo: Finance: Blodgett: "The Bears Were Wrong"
Click on the post for the latest from Yahoo finance.
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Nostalgia: Video; Evansville School Board: Mr. Pierick speaks: The Observer Salutes the Service of Michael Pierick as Evansville School Board President
Video; Evansville School Board; Monday, March 15, 2010: Mr. Pierick speaks: "Just Say NO"----the math of taking all the Brodhead Open enrollment students does not add up---it causes Evansville Taxpayers to ante up about $4000 per student taken, in a situation where Brodhead taxpayers pay less than Evansville residents, and in addition it exhausts the physical resources of the schools.
Download File
Download File
Bloomberg Sues ECB over Greece Hidden Borrowings: UK Telegraph
The bond saga unfolds. Click on the post.
Friday, December 24, 2010
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Mailbag: Bear Trader reflects on a bond panic; on renouncing pensions etc; and holiday wishes
(Ed.note: The Bear Trader is a regular contributor to the Evansville Observer, and his comments are bearish even when giving Holiday Wishes. His bearish views are never to be considered investment advice.)
Notice that Pimco Total Return made a hell of a drop Dec. 8 and has not recovered. Dec.8 took out all the moving averages, including the 400 day SMA, and did so big time. Dec.3 PTTRX was 11.50, Dec. 8 was 10.80, a 6% drop in three trading days. This has never happened before. PTTRX is by far the largest bond fund. Some stability since, see wise crack.
MMT took out the 200 day EMA Dec. 13. Looks to be recovering, maybe. Looks like the FRB (Federal Reserve Board) is buying like a maniac on speed.
10 year Federal bond return was 2.4% Oct. 8, now is 3.346%. This is a 28% drop in price. Some stabilizing the last three days, ditto the "maniac on speed" wise crack.
So. A "real" bond panic? You mean when the lid blows off Japan and Europe Government bonds (sometime in the next two years, sooner rather than later)? Depends on what the USA does in the next weeks. Get Bernanke kenneled, stop monetizing the debt, let USA interest rates rise, (causing a USA bond panic,) run the USA like Cristie does New Jersey, let the Big Boys take their losses in bonds as interest rates return to somewhere more than inflation (say, 4.5% on Fed 90 day notes) and everything will turn out fine in the end. Otherwise the entire world's bonds will crash together simultaneously unless the USD can be the "strong currency of last resort". Otherwise gold and silver will go to the moon. Maybe even a hundred times higher in USD, Yen, and Euros. That would mean gold and silver confiscation, and Weimar - Zimbabwe inflation.
You get your social security check and buy a loaf of bread. Runs on the banks and everyone buying anything at all with it while cash still has some value.
So, "a real bond panic"? One's running now, and the Fed is monetizing like crazy. The dikes are bulging and the Fed is out of fingers.
ON that cheerful note, on to municipalities, states, etc.
The statutes are real hazey, Federaly there is no real way to roll up pension obligations except bankruptcy, Washington DC is talking about some sort of new set of laws to let States, Counties, Municipalities, etc. dump their pension obligations. We shall see.
I don't think that pension law that applies to the private sector applies to government bodies. For sure government entities are not covered by Federal pension reserves requirements applied to the private sector.
The States have sovereign immunity in lawsuits, meaning that if a State does not care to be sued in cannot be forced. Essentially their pension obligations can be terminated by States at will. Then the Feds would probably take it to Federal Court (14th Amendment). California, Illinois, Rhode Island, etc. would plead poverty, and residents of Texas, Wisconsin, and many others would balk at paying amazingly huge out of state government pensions. Also the States can unilaterally de-recognize the public unions, no unions, no contracts, no pensions. The States are not covered by the National Labor Relations Act of 1935, you see. The same is true of the Federal Government - unions are allowed there only because of JFK's Executive Order. A few words on a piece of paper above the President's signature and Federal unions are history.
Have a Merry Christmas!!!
Notice that Pimco Total Return made a hell of a drop Dec. 8 and has not recovered. Dec.8 took out all the moving averages, including the 400 day SMA, and did so big time. Dec.3 PTTRX was 11.50, Dec. 8 was 10.80, a 6% drop in three trading days. This has never happened before. PTTRX is by far the largest bond fund. Some stability since, see wise crack.
MMT took out the 200 day EMA Dec. 13. Looks to be recovering, maybe. Looks like the FRB (Federal Reserve Board) is buying like a maniac on speed.
10 year Federal bond return was 2.4% Oct. 8, now is 3.346%. This is a 28% drop in price. Some stabilizing the last three days, ditto the "maniac on speed" wise crack.
So. A "real" bond panic? You mean when the lid blows off Japan and Europe Government bonds (sometime in the next two years, sooner rather than later)? Depends on what the USA does in the next weeks. Get Bernanke kenneled, stop monetizing the debt, let USA interest rates rise, (causing a USA bond panic,) run the USA like Cristie does New Jersey, let the Big Boys take their losses in bonds as interest rates return to somewhere more than inflation (say, 4.5% on Fed 90 day notes) and everything will turn out fine in the end. Otherwise the entire world's bonds will crash together simultaneously unless the USD can be the "strong currency of last resort". Otherwise gold and silver will go to the moon. Maybe even a hundred times higher in USD, Yen, and Euros. That would mean gold and silver confiscation, and Weimar - Zimbabwe inflation.
You get your social security check and buy a loaf of bread. Runs on the banks and everyone buying anything at all with it while cash still has some value.
So, "a real bond panic"? One's running now, and the Fed is monetizing like crazy. The dikes are bulging and the Fed is out of fingers.
ON that cheerful note, on to municipalities, states, etc.
The statutes are real hazey, Federaly there is no real way to roll up pension obligations except bankruptcy, Washington DC is talking about some sort of new set of laws to let States, Counties, Municipalities, etc. dump their pension obligations. We shall see.
I don't think that pension law that applies to the private sector applies to government bodies. For sure government entities are not covered by Federal pension reserves requirements applied to the private sector.
The States have sovereign immunity in lawsuits, meaning that if a State does not care to be sued in cannot be forced. Essentially their pension obligations can be terminated by States at will. Then the Feds would probably take it to Federal Court (14th Amendment). California, Illinois, Rhode Island, etc. would plead poverty, and residents of Texas, Wisconsin, and many others would balk at paying amazingly huge out of state government pensions. Also the States can unilaterally de-recognize the public unions, no unions, no contracts, no pensions. The States are not covered by the National Labor Relations Act of 1935, you see. The same is true of the Federal Government - unions are allowed there only because of JFK's Executive Order. A few words on a piece of paper above the President's signature and Federal unions are history.
Have a Merry Christmas!!!
Paul Soglin Campaign Statement: Mayor of Madison--2011
I love the city of Madison and everything about it…its past, its people, its present and its potential.
I have seen this City from many sides: as a student at the UW and as a member of its faculty…as a City Council member, as your Mayor.
I’ve worked in the private sector as an investment advisor and as a project manager for a major Dane County corporation. I’ve worked on area-wide economic development and housing issues for the State.
I’ve seen what works in Madison and what doesn’t. I’ve been a part of moving Madison forward. I’ve never been shy about suggesting new ideas and advocating for change when I thought we could do better.
This is one of those times.
The Edgewater, the downtown library, Overture...snowplowing …taxes that are too high, a budget that is structurally unsound, the exodus of talented city managers, neighborhood groups whose input is ignored and whose participation is devalued. Good ideas that go nowhere and bad ideas that won’t go away.
Madison isn’t moving forward or working together or getting things done as it should…as it has…as it can. The next Mayor of Madison needs to have the know-how and vision to get Madison working and moving forward together during difficult, complex and challenging times.
That’s what I offer. That’s what I’ve done. And that’s why today, I am announcing my candidacy for Mayor.
Some of the news reports about my candidacy have described me as a “politician.” But let me tell you the truth: I am a lousy politician. I am too forthright. Too honest. Too interested in the nuts and bolts of leading a city. I like the exchange of ideas and the good ideas that come from open debate and discussion and collective reasoning. I like to get things done.
I’m not a politician. I am a Mayor. The inability of the current administration to get things done and to address challenges before they become crises threatens the future of our city. It undermines our ability to come together as Madisonians and focus our considerable talents and energy to collectively solve the issues – big and small – that confront us.
We can do better. During my terms as Mayor, we build the Capitol Centre and Monona Terrace, turned State Street into a bus and pedestrian mall. We laid the foundation for Madison Metro. We had a triple A bond rating recognizing our strong fiscal management. We balanced budgets.
We combined civic pride with civic responsibility. We made things happen.
Together, we can do it again. One of the first things I’ll do as Mayor will be to meet with every member of the city council to get their recommendations for their own and citizen appointments to city committees so we create a committee system that is diverse with people and ideas.
I’ll get governmental, labor, business, and educational partners together and get to work to create opportunistic programs that will expand employment, training, and workforce development for all Madisonians.
We’ll collaborate with County Government, environmentalists, urban planners and neighborhood groups to adopt a Madison Plan that comprehensively addresses our land use and transportation goals in order to create a safe and healthy environment for all Madisonians to live work, study, and play.
I’ll organize a broad based city commission, modeled on the Monona Terrace Commission, that will produce a working solution for Overture.
People from all across Madison and from across the political spectrum urged me to run for mayor. The people of this City value the services their City provides while demanding they get value for their dollars. The people of Madison want their mayor to envision and enact initiatives that ensure a positive, common future for this city, its neighborhoods, its people, its downtown, its suburbs and its parks. They want us to get things done now, for this generation without sacrificing the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.
With all the serious challenges we face, Madison is still the best City in this country to live, work and raise a family. We are home to a world class university, great public schools, gorgeous lakes, a thriving bio-tech sector. We are situated in a County distinguished by beautiful and productive farms, miles of bike trails, innovative County government programs and hard working, caring residents.
Being Mayor of Madison is the toughest job I’ve ever loved. I am prepared to focus on nothing else but working with every one of you to make Madison work -- for all its citizens -- once again.
Thank you.
- Paul Soglin
I have seen this City from many sides: as a student at the UW and as a member of its faculty…as a City Council member, as your Mayor.
I’ve worked in the private sector as an investment advisor and as a project manager for a major Dane County corporation. I’ve worked on area-wide economic development and housing issues for the State.
I’ve seen what works in Madison and what doesn’t. I’ve been a part of moving Madison forward. I’ve never been shy about suggesting new ideas and advocating for change when I thought we could do better.
This is one of those times.
The Edgewater, the downtown library, Overture...snowplowing …taxes that are too high, a budget that is structurally unsound, the exodus of talented city managers, neighborhood groups whose input is ignored and whose participation is devalued. Good ideas that go nowhere and bad ideas that won’t go away.
Madison isn’t moving forward or working together or getting things done as it should…as it has…as it can. The next Mayor of Madison needs to have the know-how and vision to get Madison working and moving forward together during difficult, complex and challenging times.
That’s what I offer. That’s what I’ve done. And that’s why today, I am announcing my candidacy for Mayor.
Some of the news reports about my candidacy have described me as a “politician.” But let me tell you the truth: I am a lousy politician. I am too forthright. Too honest. Too interested in the nuts and bolts of leading a city. I like the exchange of ideas and the good ideas that come from open debate and discussion and collective reasoning. I like to get things done.
I’m not a politician. I am a Mayor. The inability of the current administration to get things done and to address challenges before they become crises threatens the future of our city. It undermines our ability to come together as Madisonians and focus our considerable talents and energy to collectively solve the issues – big and small – that confront us.
We can do better. During my terms as Mayor, we build the Capitol Centre and Monona Terrace, turned State Street into a bus and pedestrian mall. We laid the foundation for Madison Metro. We had a triple A bond rating recognizing our strong fiscal management. We balanced budgets.
We combined civic pride with civic responsibility. We made things happen.
Together, we can do it again. One of the first things I’ll do as Mayor will be to meet with every member of the city council to get their recommendations for their own and citizen appointments to city committees so we create a committee system that is diverse with people and ideas.
I’ll get governmental, labor, business, and educational partners together and get to work to create opportunistic programs that will expand employment, training, and workforce development for all Madisonians.
We’ll collaborate with County Government, environmentalists, urban planners and neighborhood groups to adopt a Madison Plan that comprehensively addresses our land use and transportation goals in order to create a safe and healthy environment for all Madisonians to live work, study, and play.
I’ll organize a broad based city commission, modeled on the Monona Terrace Commission, that will produce a working solution for Overture.
People from all across Madison and from across the political spectrum urged me to run for mayor. The people of this City value the services their City provides while demanding they get value for their dollars. The people of Madison want their mayor to envision and enact initiatives that ensure a positive, common future for this city, its neighborhoods, its people, its downtown, its suburbs and its parks. They want us to get things done now, for this generation without sacrificing the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.
With all the serious challenges we face, Madison is still the best City in this country to live, work and raise a family. We are home to a world class university, great public schools, gorgeous lakes, a thriving bio-tech sector. We are situated in a County distinguished by beautiful and productive farms, miles of bike trails, innovative County government programs and hard working, caring residents.
Being Mayor of Madison is the toughest job I’ve ever loved. I am prepared to focus on nothing else but working with every one of you to make Madison work -- for all its citizens -- once again.
Thank you.
- Paul Soglin
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Markets; Taxes: " I Don't Remember:" Solved:
In 2011 when baby boomers fill out their tax return or go to a tax preparer, they no longer can say that they do not remembe their "basis" or cost of the original purchase. Yes...it can be a memory problem if one purchased the stock in the 1960's....Now the IRS is going to make sure you do not forget....
Click on the post for the story.
Click on the post for the story.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Evansville Park Board Meets Monday--Civil War Event on the Agenda
Click on the post for the full agenda.
Deal of the Week: Ace Hardware offers free fill of inkjet cartridge thru Dec 19th
Check it out. This offer applies to the 136 cartridges that they can do.. Recycling can save up to 50% of your cost. Tell them the Observer sent you.
QE2 as an Opportunity? CapTimes: Unger
Click on the post for a recent article in the CapTimes with a perspective on the recent activity in the bond market.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
School Scoop Expands On Chasin the News: "It's Up to You...It always has been"
Click on the post for a classic from School Scoop.
Blogs: Rock Net Roots: Looking for a Self Made Businessman----
Click on the post for the article. Enjoy.
St. Paul Holds the line on Property Tax levy---StarTribune
Click on the post for the latest. One assumption is that the State of Minnesota will not cut state aid to cities further...that is a big if...for Wisconsin cities as well. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Mayor Dave ponders Attacks on Madison: "New Economy is based on ideas": CapTimes
Click on the post for the latest.
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Mailbag: Bear Trader Writes; "Some Thoughts on Equitable Taxes"
Warren Buffet has said that he pays taxes at a lower rate than does his secretary. This is so.
The truly rich make almost all of their income from their investments. When the value of an investment goes up, this is called "capital gains", that is, as return on capital, that is, on money.
Interestingly, from my viewpoint as one of the "little people", capital gains are taxed at a much lower rate than "regular" income from wages, salaries, and the savings I have (taxed as "interest" at my regular rate). So it is for all but a very small portion of the population.
I cannot see why "capital gains" should be taxed as other than regular income. There a bogus arguments based on the idea that a low capital gains rate is merely to recompense for any "capital losses" - hey, I have capital losses, and certainly get no "recompense".
So, how about just abolishing "capital gains" from the tax laws? Income is income, right? Tax "capital gains" as regular income, WHICH IT IS.
Now my point.
Politicians are always laying on the B.S. that they are "for the little guy" and always pushing "the rich should pay their fair share". Well, then, why not get rid of this ridiculous "capital gains" tax treatment? Maybe the Big Boys wouldn't like it, eh? Maybe those Senators with net worth in the hundreds of millions of dollars would have to pay taxes on their incomes? Maybe the Billionairs would be pissed?
So, anyway, you can tell if a politician is lying easily. Are his lips moving?
At least the Pubs don't lie as much as the Dems. "I'm for the little guy" is a lie. Maybe someday a Pol will push for getting rid of special tax treatment for "capital gains" and tax the really rich guy's income the same way as "the little guy's". Nobody since Huey Long has tried it and he died in a hail of bullets - from his own bodyguard. Oh, well, maybe Hell will freeze over.
The truly rich make almost all of their income from their investments. When the value of an investment goes up, this is called "capital gains", that is, as return on capital, that is, on money.
Interestingly, from my viewpoint as one of the "little people", capital gains are taxed at a much lower rate than "regular" income from wages, salaries, and the savings I have (taxed as "interest" at my regular rate). So it is for all but a very small portion of the population.
I cannot see why "capital gains" should be taxed as other than regular income. There a bogus arguments based on the idea that a low capital gains rate is merely to recompense for any "capital losses" - hey, I have capital losses, and certainly get no "recompense".
So, how about just abolishing "capital gains" from the tax laws? Income is income, right? Tax "capital gains" as regular income, WHICH IT IS.
Now my point.
Politicians are always laying on the B.S. that they are "for the little guy" and always pushing "the rich should pay their fair share". Well, then, why not get rid of this ridiculous "capital gains" tax treatment? Maybe the Big Boys wouldn't like it, eh? Maybe those Senators with net worth in the hundreds of millions of dollars would have to pay taxes on their incomes? Maybe the Billionairs would be pissed?
So, anyway, you can tell if a politician is lying easily. Are his lips moving?
At least the Pubs don't lie as much as the Dems. "I'm for the little guy" is a lie. Maybe someday a Pol will push for getting rid of special tax treatment for "capital gains" and tax the really rich guy's income the same way as "the little guy's". Nobody since Huey Long has tried it and he died in a hail of bullets - from his own bodyguard. Oh, well, maybe Hell will freeze over.
Monday, December 13, 2010
Tax Deal Drives Up Rates: Yahoo: Finance
Click on the post for the latest. It really feels like Argentina...maybe it's time to learn the tango....stay tuned.
In a market driven situation, driving rates higher will make municipal financing impossible. Nice way of inducing fiscal restraint huh?
In a market driven situation, driving rates higher will make municipal financing impossible. Nice way of inducing fiscal restraint huh?
Cuomo Urges Property Tax Cap for New York: New York Times
Click on the post for the latest. Is this what Wisconsin needs too?
Channel 3000: Evansville Schools opening two Hours late This morning
This is per Channel 3000 email.
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Governor declares Precautionary State of Emergency:
Click on the post for the latest from the Gazette.
Service of Rememberance For Tonight Cancelled due to weather:
Good Morning,
We are trying to get the word out that the Service of Remembrance scheduled for 7:00 tonight at St. Paul Parish has been canceled due to weather. Please forward this message on to anyone you know who may have been planning to attend. Thanks so much.
Nancy Hurley
We are trying to get the word out that the Service of Remembrance scheduled for 7:00 tonight at St. Paul Parish has been canceled due to weather. Please forward this message on to anyone you know who may have been planning to attend. Thanks so much.
Nancy Hurley
Climate Change Conference In the News: Hurley Blogs Details
Click on the post for the detail blog posts from the climate change conference by Jim Hurley.
Roof on the Minnesota Metrodome Collapses: Monday Night Game in Doubt: StarTrib
Click on the post for the latest.
Normal, Mn. School District Moves to Provide New Born Care: Tales From Normal, Mn. : FICTION
Click on the post for the latest.
Friday, December 10, 2010
Weather Alert: Minn and Parts of Wisconsin: Saturday
Adverse conditions could approach blizzard in parts of Wisconsin and Southern Minnesota. Click on the post for the latest from Paul Douglas.
Chasin the News Blog weighs in on 4K: On the School Board Calendar Again for Monday
Click on the post for the latest from Chasin the News.
Thursday, December 09, 2010
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
Jim Hurley: Blogs; Climate Change Conference
Click on the post for the latest from Jim Hurley who is reporting on the climate change conference.
Finance Committee Meets Tomorrow: Youth Center Coordinator on Agenda
Click on the post for the latest.
SchoolScoop: Parkview Considers Consolidation:
Click on the post for the latest from Melissa Hammann's School Scoop blog:
Friday, December 03, 2010
Has Year End Tax Strategy Changed? Yahoo:: Finance
If one believes that taxes will rise in the upcoming years, what is the logical tax strategy or strategies? Click on the post for an article in Yahoo Finance today.
Thursday, December 02, 2010
Miss Toosie's Petunia Society to Meet Wednesday: Economic Development Goals Cited: Tales From Normal, Mn: FICTION
Click on the post for the latest.
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