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Sunday, August 05, 2012

Nostalgia: Jan 23, 2008: Past Results Do not Guarantee Future Performance

Ed. note: This is a post from The Traders Blue Book from 2008: It is one of the most popular posts.) Past Results Do Not Guarantee Future Performance." If you do not remember this phrase, you are probably too young to read this post. In virtually every mutual fund brochure or prospectus for a unit trust of whatever investment, there is the caution...... after of course the investment representative has gone over the wonderful result if..... in theoretical terms..... you had invested ....$1....at the Crash of 1929 and invested that in this particular investment....you would have had the wonderful result listed above....." and after speaking of those wonderful theoretical results, there is the caution about ...."Past Results do not guarantee future performance..." Recently, in Evansville, in our own school projections for future school demand for facilities, whether we looked at population projection or building permit historical data, nobody wanted to read the warning----"Past results do not guarantee future performance." Even in the Evansville City budget, the city financial consultant, Greg Johnson, from Ehlers and Associates stated that "proceeding forward with no further General Obligation debt, the future seems to be no problem with debt capacity." The problem, of course, was pointed out by Fred Juergens, who counted 5 million in dreams that were penciled in on the capital investment budget for the year around 2009. It seems we always, as human beings, want the pro forma future not to include the unfortunate expenses of the reality of the things on the horizon. I could go on about flashing lights from dashboards of cars re warnings, but.....I think you get the jist. As a stress reliever, it is important to manage stress and ...a little denial is good. Sometimes....the denial gets too large. Posted by Evansville Observer at 8:58 AM

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