Reflection: Speculation: Are we there yet?

It is a little amusing that each morning on the Bloomberg News channel, the pundits speculate whether we are in a recession, if so when it will end, and in the alternative will the stock market begin the rally back this morning.

There was a brief summary last week in one article that said that the average recession lasts 10 months, and the average trough or low point is at the 6 month point. If you extrapolate the fact that the "stimulus" checks are scheduled or hoped to arrive in consumers hands in June, I must work backwards and assume that the recession started December 1st. Maybe we will be out of it in November 2008. I wonder how low interest rates will go. I suppose in order for young couples to buy a home on the incomes available that home prices will have to fall another 15-20% and interest rates on the 15 year mortgage would have to fall to 3.00% Then....after every mortgage holder in America refinances, we can start over. O.K. Time will tell. Stay tuned.