A lesson in Weather accounting--ditto for running accounting--ditto for schools

I recently spent some time discussing with a weather guru and teased him about the sad state of weather forcasting as I saw it. "Yes," he admitted. One just can take five "five day forecasts" and stack them on top of one another and then compare to see how amusing weather forecasting is."

It is very striking. On a warm Monday, the high lows will be just happily be extended for the next five days and beyond. In just 24 hours as the weather cools, presto--all the future will be changed likewise. I was pleased that he admitted to the fallibilty of weather forecaster---- then he asked how this was different from other accounting. That made me wonder.

In accounting for my running times, now that I am 60, I like to take my average time per mile 5 years ago and then use a rolling average to see my current time. HA? Pretty ridiculous procedure. Only in a dream with lots of ibuprophen would that ever happen.

Thus even in school budgeting we look forward like everything will be the same. The other night, folks began pondering spending a sum that will be there if all else remains the same-----like if transportation, heat, light, water and sewer, state aid, etc. stay the same. What is wrong with this picture?

The City of Evansville has filed for a 30% increase in water and sewer fees. This has been public knowledge for 6 months, and yet the school district budgets no increase. Electric rates are budgeted for 5% increase, but again no increase is budgeted. State aids have been falling and yet we hope they will stay the same.

Yes. It is pretty human to always want the numbers to just extend. Like we want to be young forever. And our running times to be always the same speed. And the weather to be just the same. But the thing about the past----- It is gone. The future is where budgeting begins. Confronting it is the problem. Make a note of it.

What is the Observer opinion in all of this? I am having enough trouble confronting the readings on my running watch. I just think there may be a watch malfunction. It cannot be. Such awful changes. Like a Lincoln to the junkyard and now my watch not working right. I cannot deal with confronting anything further, like a little school accounting. So.....

You make the call.